Okay, so gambling is usually Mike Fagan's thing, but today I wanted to talk a little bit about getting in on fights early.
I don't think I'm going out on a limb here when I say that Diego Sanchez is a huge underdog against BJ Penn. He has almost no reliable path to victory. Penn's BJJ is better, Penn's striking is better, and Penn showed that cardio isn't a huge issue for him anymore with the fight against Kenny Florian. Still, the average opening line for the fight was Penn at -190. That is an insane amount of value (Penn is at roughly -300 now which is still a good value honestly).
When the Kimbo Slice v. Houston Alexander fight was announced it was clear that Houston was a big favorite. His power is much more proven against professional competition, he is much quicker, Kimbo is dealing with a weigh cut for the first time in his life, and so on. Still, when the fight line opened you could get either guy at -115. Again, tremendous value. Within 24 hours we were closing in on Houston being a -300 favorite.
Jon Jones, opened at better than -200 most places and is now around -300.
If you liked Brendan Schaub against Roy Nelson you could have gotten in on him at +225 early vs. +165 now.
This is a part of MMA gambling that gets overlooked by a lot of people, a lot of the time. It can feel like you're just tying money up when you bet on something that isn't going to happen for a month or two but in the end there is a lot of money to be made on the earliest lines. If you plan on becoming serious about the gambling you're doing, you'd be very well served to stay on top of lines as they come out and make your early plays.
Source: http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2009/12/5/1187147/gambling-advice-recent-fights
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